Marty, your timing is impeccable!
Q4 is here! Can you guess what comes along with Q4? Deep and plentiful discounts on Lego sets from every major retailer like Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Lego.com also joined in with some of their best sales of the year thus far, with the additional opportunities to score limited edition GWP’s and stack Insider’s points.
This time of year is optimal for making Lego purchases as there are so many sales happening simultaneously. For the sake of being thorough as part of my Lego investing series, I wanted to talk about the timing of purchases across the entire year, not just during Q4.
Best time to buy
When buying Lego with the intention of turning a profit, generally speaking, the best strategy is to:
Buy sets that are retiring in the current year.
Buying as close as possible to the set’s retirement date.
This strategy hits the sweet spot of buying at the best price along with the shortest hold time to turn a profit.
Exceptions to buying in Q4
Like everything, there are times when buying Lego outside of Q4 makes sense.
Clearance Sales - In an attempt to clear shelf space, many retailers will have random clearance sales throughout the year. These sales are usually unannounced and unadvertised. They may also be regional or store specific.
Lego.com Events - Lego S@H will have promotions throughout the year to entice customers to make purchases from them instead of other retailers. Promotions like double Insiders points or limited edition gift with purchase (GWP) present a great time to buy outside of Q4. Events like Star Wars May the 4th and Harry Potter Back to Hogwarts typically offer the combination of double points and GWP sets.
IP catalysts - A new movie or television show is released causing increased demand for a set or theme related to the IP.
An example of a recent IP catalyst is A Minecraft Movie released in April 2025 that saw many sets from 2024 more than double in price only 4 months after retirement.
Keep in mind that A Minecraft Movie was well received at the box office with global sales just shy of $1 billion.
The opposite is also true for a movie that does not perform well at the box office. This can have a negative effect on the value and demand for Lego sets. For example, Captain America: Brave New World was not a good movie. Many Lego sets released alongside the movie have been on regular steep discounts like 40668 Captain America and Red Hulk Brickheadz.
Rare opportunities - Finding lightning in a bottle - Cara Dune Minifigure in 75254 - In early 2021, Gina Carano (actress playing Cara Dune in The Mandalorian) made a controversial post on Twitter and Disney fired her, thus ending her involvement with the popular series. The minifigure from set 75254 spiked in value in the short term as this was the only set to obtain the Cara Dune minifigure at that time. Currently 75254 sells close to MSRP even though it retired in 2021. According to brickeconomy.com, the current value of the Cara Dune minifigure is under $8.
Q4 quick flip opportunities - These kinds of opportunities are risky and could leave you buying a set that you won’t be able to sell profitably. There are instances where Lego will release a brand new set in the latter part of the year and the supply cannot keep up with demand. This is no different than when the “hot new toy” for Christmas is difficult to find in stores or online. Once Christmas is over the demand plummets. If you haven't sold before the demand dies down you are stuck with a Lego set or toy that no one is willing to overpay for.
These opportunities are hard to predict as we never know how much supply Lego releases on its initial wave. Here is an example: Lego Fortnite Battlebus 77073 was released on October 1, 2024 as a limited Lego exclusive, meaning for the first 3 months of its shelf life it was only available for purchase from Lego.com or in Lego stores. Retail price was $100 and eventually sold out and was on backorder till after Christmas. If you had the insight to buy this set when it was available, you could have easily doubled your money prior to Christmas. In January 2025, 77073 was no longer exclusive to Lego and was available at every major retailer. It currently is available at a 20% discount ($80) and does not retire till 2027.
Luck - Sometimes it pays to be in the right place at the right time. There have been times I walked into a store and found Lego sets in a clearance section for 75% off MSRP. Other times when checking out the Lego aisle, I’ll find a yellow clearance sticker only to find the shelf is wiped out.
Want to increase your luck? Make friends with store managers that may be willing to give you a heads up of new in store clearance. Also make friends with other Lego sellers or join online Lego groups (example, The Brick Dynasty). There you can find many like-minded people that share discounts they find. With the ridiculously low fee for a paid subscription of The Brick Dynasty app ($5 per month), you get access to “Brick Check,” a real-time stock and price checker for all your local Walmart and Target stores. If you find one set a month on clearance using the app, it easily pays for itself.
In conclusion, Lego investing on the surface seems quite simple, buy low sell high. However, diving into the nuances is what distinguishes an average investor from a great investor. One of those nuances is timing. My best advice is to do your homework so when one of these opportunities presents itself you are able to make an educated decision.
As my grandma used to say, the devil is in the details. Knowing how to look at the details and then also knowing what to do with that information is what turns a good investment into a great one. I don’t think grandma was talking about Lego investing but she is spot on nonetheless.
BTW, looking back, my grandma may have been the coolest grandma ever! When I was 10 years old, she taught me and my cousins how to play Texas hold’em, 500 rummy, and craps. She also let me dump my giant bucket of Lego in the middle of her living room floor and build for hours, no matter how many times she stepped on one in her bare feet.
Miss you grandma!
Until next time AFOL’s….